「一帶一路」倡議被認為是來中共最高領導層，是與鄧小平在1978年倡導的改革開放政策相媲美的政策。30年來的改革開放，已經使中國從貧窮積弱的落後國家，躍升為今天僅次於美國的全球第二大經濟體。

「一帶一路」是國策

自1978年起擺脫文革的包袱後，中國便以開放自身來歡迎外國投資。企業家在各個沿海城市掀起建廠潮，聘用數以百萬計的從業人員，向全球出口「中國製造」的商品，中國成了世界工廠。 改革開放30多年來，中國的GDP曾達到雙位數增長。然而，2012年以來，中國經濟增速放緩，政府僅爭取8%的增長，自此每年增長也只有單位數，到底出了什麼問題？中國的商品主要依頼出口，而且主要銷往歐洲和美國，在中國的供應能夠被這些西方國家的需求完全消化時，是完全沒有問題的。但是，當歐洲經濟遭受2009年「歐債危機」重創、希臘幾乎破產，而美國經濟正受到2008年「次按危機」造成的嚴重房地產泡沫摧殘時，西方國家便減少從中國入口貨品。中國從前對出口的依賴，可能不能再支持她的進一步發展。因此，在國家層面上，中國有必要開拓對其他國家出口的新機會。

世界的機遇

在國際層面上，世界經濟不景氣，需要新的機遇推動經濟增長。只有兩個人口眾多和發達中的大陸是非洲和中亞地區，但只有中亞在地理上與中國接壤。探索和大規模投資發展中經濟體，將是推動全球經濟增長的新機遇，每個國家現在都可以通過加入中國主導成立的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（亞投行）參與新的機遇。亞投行是國際投資機構，將為一帶一路沿線國家的許多基建項目籌集資金，並最終在項目建成後獲得顯著利潤，讓所有持份者分享。現在，世界上多數國家（除了美國，日本和加拿大等國）都是亞投行的持份者，她們都會因一帶一路倡議而得到繁榮。

香港新的生命線？

自從改革開放後，外國投資者可以與內地直接交易，香港作為​​中國走向世界門戶的角色已大大削弱，內地許多新的港口和集裝箱碼頭，現在可以從中國內地不必經香港直接進出口，同樣地，香港的聯交所已不再是內地企業最喜愛的上市地點。現在更多內地企業行政人員接受海外教育，對外國制度有更多的了解，他們的公司可以在紐約或盧森堡上市，毫無疑問，香港已經因內地快速發展的變化而被「邊緣化」。再加上香港黯淡的未來形成內部問題：每年有逾12,000名大學生由超過12所大專院校畢業尋找就業機會，「本土派」分子口頭辱罵內地遊客和欺侮他們的不文明行為，真的傷害他們的感情。現在零售業面臨節節跌破紀錄的銷售額；今年是2003年沙士肆虐以來最糟糕的一年，香港迫切需要增長的機會。 行政長官梁振英在他的《2016施政報告》中確切地指出，香港既是集資融資的平台，也是專業和基礎設施服務的平台。香港確實有三種專長可以提供：首先是公正和可信的法律體系，其次是有效的金融市場，第三是嫻熟法律和金融的人才濟濟。在一個司法機構獨立的地方裁決與中國內地可能產生的項目糾紛，中亞國家將更有信心。而按「一國兩制」的設計，香港的優勢是司法是完全獨立，並會對所有締約方提供保護。香港的律師對合同起草、合同管理和解決爭端訓練有素。亞投行和所有基建項目可以利用香港證券市場發行債券籌集資金，並在香港聯交所上市，投資者可將項目作為退出市場戰略從而獲利。 如果我們定位得宜，努力爭取，「一帶一路」倡議可以成為香港未來30年的經濟命脈。不要滿足於現在，因為現時的經濟政策過濾掉了大部分的收益，只會令多數大企業得其所哉，卻令中產階級和草根階層的口袋依然空空如也。 * 原文刊於6月21日英文《中國日報》A10版，HKG報翻譯，內文小題略有調動，文章以英文版為準。 HK could find a new economic lifeline in B&R

A National Policy

The Belt and Road Initiative is said to be a policy from the very top of the party leadership comparable with the "Open Door Policy" initiated by Deng Xiao-ping in 1978. The Open Door Policy, for 30 years, has delivered China from a poor and weak underdeveloped country into today's the world’s second largest economy, second only to the United States.  From 1978 onwards, after getting rid of the Cultural Revolution baggage, China opened itself up to welcome foreign investments.  Waves of entrepreneurs built factories in various coastal cities, employing millions and exporting "Made in China" goods worldwide.  China is the world factory.  For over 30 years since the Open Door Policy, China's GDP had seen 'double digit' growth.  However, since 2012, China's economy growth slowed down and the government strived for an 8% growth; and growth has ever been single digit only.  What's the problem? China's goods are exclusively exports, mainly to Europe and the United States.  At times when Chinese supplies could be totally consumed by the demand of these Western countries, there was no issue at all.  But when European economies were hard-hit by say the Debt Crisis in 2009, the likely bankruptcy of Greece, etc., and the American economy suffered badly by the housing bubble busted triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, Western countries bought less from China.  China's previous reliance on export could no longer support it's further growth. Thus, on a national level, it is necessary for China to find new export opportunity with other countries.

An Opportunity for the World

On the international level, the world economy is stagnant and needs new opportunity to boost economic growth.  The only two populated and under-developed continents are Africa and Middle Asia but only the Middle Asia is geographically linked to China. Exploring and investing in mass under-developed economies will be this new opportunity to drive a global economic growth and every country can now participate by joining the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ("AIIB").  The AIIB is the investment vehicle that will raise fund for many infrastructure projects along the Belt & Road countries and will ultimately gain significant profit upon project completion for all its stakeholders to share.  By now, almost every country (except the U.S., Japan and Canada) is a stakeholder in AIIB and they will all stand to prosper from the Belt and Road Initiative.

Hong Kong’s Lifeline?

Hong Kong's role as the doorway of China to the world has significantly diminished since the Open Door Policy as foreign investors could deal directly with the Mainland; many new ports and container terminals in the Mainland now means export to and import from the Mainland need not go through Hong Kong; also Hong Kong Stock Exchange is no longer the favorite public listing venue for Mainland companies as corporate executives are now more overseas educated and have better understanding of foreign systems they could get their companies listed in New York or Luxemburg; no doubt Hong Kong has been "marginalized" from the Mainland’s rapid evolving development.  Adding to this diming future is Hong Kong’s internal problems: over 12,000 university graduates every year from over 12 higher institutions every year seeking employment; localism activists verbally vilified Mainland tourists and boorishly bullied them really hurt their feelings and now retail sector suffers recorded constant sales fall and 2016 is the worst year since 2003 when SARS hit. Hong Kong desperately needs growth opportunity. The Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying in his 2016 Policy Address rightly pointed out that Hong Kong is both platform for capital formation and financing and platform for professional and infrastructure services.  Hong Kong indeed has three skills to offer: firstly, an impartial and trusted legal system, secondly, an effective financial market and thirdly, a good set of skillful legal and financial professionals. Middle Asian countries certainly will have more confidence in an independent legal institution to determine project dispute that they may have with the Mainland China, and Hong Kong, by virtue of the One Country, Two Systems design, the judiciary is fiercely independent and would offer protection to all parties. Hong Kong lawyers are well trained in contract drafting, in contract administration and in dispute resolution.  The AIIB and management of any infrastructure project can make use of Hong Kong’s securities market to issue debenture to raise funding; and to list the project in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as an exit strategy for investors to capitalize on their profit. If positioned well and striving hard, the Belt & Road Initiative would be Hong Kong’s economic lifeline for the next 30 years to come. Stop triumphing for now, as this economic policy could well work to benefit mostly big businesses which filter away much gains leaving middle class and grassroots still empty pocketed. * Published in China Daily A10, 21 June 2016. 圖：文匯報 http://paper.wenweipo.com/2015/02/25/CH1502250005.htm

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